Improve Customer Fill Rate
Demand-to-promise orchestration across planning, allocation and customer commitments.
The business problem
Major retailers now measure supplier service case by case and charge for every miss. Walmart's on-time, in-full program, as reported by its suppliers, applies roughly a 3% cost-of-goods charge to each late or short case, so a short shipment costs a manufacturer both the lost sale and the fine deducted from payment. The causes sit upstream, in forecasts that miss promotions, allocation decided in spreadsheets when supply is short, and order promises made without a live view of production and inbound materials.
Goal. Raise case fill rate and OTIF to each key retailer's threshold without adding inventory, by detecting supply-demand gaps days earlier and making allocation and order-promise decisions on policy rather than on whoever escalates loudest.
How success is measured
Case fill rate
Cases shipped ÷ cases orderedTracked by customer and SKU, so shortfalls are visible where they happen.
OTIF and service fines
$ and % of net sales charged backThe cost of late or short delivery that retailers deduct from payment.
How the coordinated agent workflow works
- Demand-sensing agentReads orders, retailer POS/inventory feeds (EDI 852) and the promotion calendar, and flags SKU-customer-weeks where near-term demand is diverging from the plan.
- Supply-risk agentProjects available-to-promise from the production schedule, finished-goods stock, quality holds and inbound purchase orders, and identifies the orders that will short.
- Allocation agentProposes how constrained supply is split, applying the approved customer-priority and fair-share rules, and suggests substitutions or alternate ship points.
- Order-promise agentDrafts revised confirmations (EDI 855/856) and customer notices for the planner to approve.
- OrchestratorSequences the agents, logs every recommendation with its rationale, and routes exceptions above thresholds to the planner and customer-service lead.
Operating guardrails built in
- Permission
- Read across systems; write only draft allocations and draft confirmations. No access to change the frozen production schedule or cancel orders.
- Approval
- Allocation policy is set by the S&OP owner; any allocation that cuts a top-tier customer, or exceeds a $ threshold, needs planner approval. A named human is Accountable for every customer commitment.
- Audit trail
- Each recommendation is logged with the data it used and why it chose that split, so disputes with a retailer can be answered.
- Kill switch
- One switch reverts allocation to the existing rule-based logic; tested quarterly.
- Monitoring
- Forecast-accuracy drift and allocation fairness by customer are tracked weekly; alerts if one customer is systematically shorted.